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Posts Tagged ‘Big Brown Belmont’

Big Brown eased in the Belmont

Posted by devildogtodd on June 7, 2008

It looks as though Big Brown may have bled or have had some sort of breathing problem during the Belmont. As of now, just moments after the race, my best guess would be the horse bled, got his tongue over the bit, or displaced his palet.

The possibility of the quarter crack bothering the horse is there…but this sure looks like a breathing problem. The horse seemed to travel well but it looks like an air issue.

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Big Brown the next Triple Crown winner if…..

Posted by devildogtodd on June 7, 2008

The next Triple Crown winner

…he shows up and runs his race. You can never say anything in horse racing is a sure thing. There are so many things that can cause a horse to lose a race and most of them the average viewer never knows about. Let’s look at the ways Big Brown can be denied the Triple Crown.

1. He doesn’t run in the race. Could happen, not likely.

2. He loses the rider out of the gate. Not likely, but has happened before.

3. He breaks down.

4. He gets into a HUGE amount of trouble.

5. He loses a shoe, which could easily be enough to throw his stride completely off.

6. He bleeds during the race. Many horses have bled, even when they showed no signs before of bleeding.

7. Desormeux thinks the race is six furlongs and rides the worse race in the history of racing.

8. Big Brown gets struck by lightning.

Other than that, this colt wins the Triple Crown. Is he a great race horse? Absolutely. The only problem is that he is not running against other horses considered to be really good or great. But these are not donkeys either. He has destroyed every horse he has run against. None of his races have been close.

He has won races doing things other horses have rarely been able to do. He won from the far outside in the Florida Derby, something that had NEVER been done since the track had been re-configured.

He won the Kentucky Derby from the 20 post, something that had only been done once before! And he won the Derby EASY. Like breaking tiny sticks.

He destroyed the field in the Preakness. His race in the Preakness was probably his best race, although the numbers don’t show it. This is where numbers are misleading. Big Brown was asked to run for maybe 150 to 200 yards. His move when they turned for home was nothing short of amazing. Rarely, at that stage of a race, do you see a horse re-break with such sudden acceleration. He was being geared down the last sixteenth.

In each of his last three races it would not be hard to imagine him breaking the track record if he was actually asked to really extend himself.

So the pick is obvious, but who runs second? As of this time Casino Drive has not been declared out of the Belmont, so we will include him in our handicapping. We are going to throw him out. He seems like an immensely talented colt but does not seem to be coming into this race like you would like to see a top horse come into a race. His one work was so slow they really can’t even say it was a work.

Casino Drive also appears to have a bruised foot, which obviously could be a big problem. But even before that the colt seem very uncomfortable with the way he was traveling. He is not a real good mover. So we are going to throw him out here, hope he gets better, and hope he can meet Big Brown down the road.

We are going to go with Dennis of Cork to run second. He ran a very credible race in The Derby after having some serious traffic problems. He will get a clear shot at Big Brown here. He has trained well since the Preakness.

Macho Again was one of our exacta picks in the Preakness and came through with flying colors. We like him here again.

Icabad Crane is our choice to fill our the perfecta. He seems like he might be able to run all day long and we expect him to pass tiring horses.

But let’s get real here, if Big Brown shows up and runs any of the races he has run in his last three…he is the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. Let’s hope he continues to run, but that is the subject of another article.

1. Big Brown

2. Denis of Cork

3. Macho Again

4. Icabad Crane

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Big Brown arrives in New York City….Belmont next in site

Posted by devildogtodd on May 20, 2008

Does that colt look like he even ran? Ears pricked. Looks like he was out for a Saturday stroll.

Big Brown stepped off the van at Belmont Park today looking like he never even ran on Saturday…of course he didn’t need to run much! He is so superior to any three year old running right now that he can basically just turn it on for 3/8ths of a mile and win.

The task on hand in the Belmont is going to be a bit tougher, not because any of these three year olds are of his caliber, but because of the distance. The mile-and-a-half Belmont Stakes is not always won by the best horse in the best of circumstances. The distance is a distance these horses, 99% of them, will never run again. It is the distance that gets horses beat.

But Big Brown is different. He has brilliant tactical speed. He has terrific early speed to be put anywhere the rider wants him to be and best of all…he seems to be able to run all day long. In order to beat Big Brown they are going to have to make him run fast…EARLY. Probably not going to happen.

In races this long these horses can just lope along at a very comfortable pace for them. Then they are only asked to run about 3/8ths of a mile, if that. If Big Brown gets caught up in some sort of crazy speed deal, which is really hard to imagine, he can be beat. But if they set average fractions and he is on the lead or close to it…the race is over.

People keep talking about stamina when they mention the Belmont. Well stamina is a factor, but when a horse runs as effortless as Big Brown does he does not need “mile-and-a-half” stamina to win. He is so much the best after 1 1/4 miles that no one can catch him that last 1/4.

We all keep hearing about Casino Drive…but who did he beat. No one. When he runs against Big Brown he really is going to meet the Godzilla of horse racing. He better be EXCEPTIONAL to have even a slight chance of beating Big Brown.

There was one moment in the Preakness that showed just how GREAT Big Brown is…at the top of the lane he was asked to run for maybe a 1/16th of a mile. He immediately opened up six lengths in about six strides. He actually looked like he re-broke. Rarely will you see a horse open up that quick. You saw about three separate runs from him during the race, which is not something you see much from even the best horses.

Dutrow (and God, isn’t he wonderful) knows that the only thing that gets this colt beat is sickness, injury, or a really bad trip. What you will see from Dutrow is just a series of long strong gallops and probably a 5/8ths or 3/4 work about a week before the race. A shorter workout is probably going to happen the day of or the day before the race.

What we are seeing here is potentially one of the greatest horses to ever run. We’ll find out just how great this guy is in about three weeks. Until then, just keep this guy happy and sound Rick. Most of us are rooting for you.

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