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Big Brown the next Triple Crown winner if…..

Posted by devildogtodd on June 7, 2008

The next Triple Crown winner

…he shows up and runs his race. You can never say anything in horse racing is a sure thing. There are so many things that can cause a horse to lose a race and most of them the average viewer never knows about. Let’s look at the ways Big Brown can be denied the Triple Crown.

1. He doesn’t run in the race. Could happen, not likely.

2. He loses the rider out of the gate. Not likely, but has happened before.

3. He breaks down.

4. He gets into a HUGE amount of trouble.

5. He loses a shoe, which could easily be enough to throw his stride completely off.

6. He bleeds during the race. Many horses have bled, even when they showed no signs before of bleeding.

7. Desormeux thinks the race is six furlongs and rides the worse race in the history of racing.

8. Big Brown gets struck by lightning.

Other than that, this colt wins the Triple Crown. Is he a great race horse? Absolutely. The only problem is that he is not running against other horses considered to be really good or great. But these are not donkeys either. He has destroyed every horse he has run against. None of his races have been close.

He has won races doing things other horses have rarely been able to do. He won from the far outside in the Florida Derby, something that had NEVER been done since the track had been re-configured.

He won the Kentucky Derby from the 20 post, something that had only been done once before! And he won the Derby EASY. Like breaking tiny sticks.

He destroyed the field in the Preakness. His race in the Preakness was probably his best race, although the numbers don’t show it. This is where numbers are misleading. Big Brown was asked to run for maybe 150 to 200 yards. His move when they turned for home was nothing short of amazing. Rarely, at that stage of a race, do you see a horse re-break with such sudden acceleration. He was being geared down the last sixteenth.

In each of his last three races it would not be hard to imagine him breaking the track record if he was actually asked to really extend himself.

So the pick is obvious, but who runs second? As of this time Casino Drive has not been declared out of the Belmont, so we will include him in our handicapping. We are going to throw him out. He seems like an immensely talented colt but does not seem to be coming into this race like you would like to see a top horse come into a race. His one work was so slow they really can’t even say it was a work.

Casino Drive also appears to have a bruised foot, which obviously could be a big problem. But even before that the colt seem very uncomfortable with the way he was traveling. He is not a real good mover. So we are going to throw him out here, hope he gets better, and hope he can meet Big Brown down the road.

We are going to go with Dennis of Cork to run second. He ran a very credible race in The Derby after having some serious traffic problems. He will get a clear shot at Big Brown here. He has trained well since the Preakness.

Macho Again was one of our exacta picks in the Preakness and came through with flying colors. We like him here again.

Icabad Crane is our choice to fill our the perfecta. He seems like he might be able to run all day long and we expect him to pass tiring horses.

But let’s get real here, if Big Brown shows up and runs any of the races he has run in his last three…he is the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. Let’s hope he continues to run, but that is the subject of another article.

1. Big Brown

2. Denis of Cork

3. Macho Again

4. Icabad Crane

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2 Responses to “Big Brown the next Triple Crown winner if…..”

  1. Scott said

    Ouch! What happened? The rider said “something is wrong” but didn’t allude to any problems. It’s gotta be the patched hoof, huh?

    Scott

  2. devildogtodd said

    Well, it could be the hoof. Hard to say, but he seemed to be traveling well. Apparently they have scoped him and found nothing. Weird deal here. In a day or two they will know a lot more. Just a very puzzling performance. To get eased means he simply did not want to run or there was something significantly wrong with him. I really think it is a breathing issue. Maybe they will find some sort of low blood count in the next few days. Just very puzzling. He barely ran at all.

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