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Big Brown arrives in New York City….Belmont next in site

Posted by devildogtodd on May 20, 2008

Does that colt look like he even ran? Ears pricked. Looks like he was out for a Saturday stroll.

Big Brown stepped off the van at Belmont Park today looking like he never even ran on Saturday…of course he didn’t need to run much! He is so superior to any three year old running right now that he can basically just turn it on for 3/8ths of a mile and win.

The task on hand in the Belmont is going to be a bit tougher, not because any of these three year olds are of his caliber, but because of the distance. The mile-and-a-half Belmont Stakes is not always won by the best horse in the best of circumstances. The distance is a distance these horses, 99% of them, will never run again. It is the distance that gets horses beat.

But Big Brown is different. He has brilliant tactical speed. He has terrific early speed to be put anywhere the rider wants him to be and best of all…he seems to be able to run all day long. In order to beat Big Brown they are going to have to make him run fast…EARLY. Probably not going to happen.

In races this long these horses can just lope along at a very comfortable pace for them. Then they are only asked to run about 3/8ths of a mile, if that. If Big Brown gets caught up in some sort of crazy speed deal, which is really hard to imagine, he can be beat. But if they set average fractions and he is on the lead or close to it…the race is over.

People keep talking about stamina when they mention the Belmont. Well stamina is a factor, but when a horse runs as effortless as Big Brown does he does not need “mile-and-a-half” stamina to win. He is so much the best after 1 1/4 miles that no one can catch him that last 1/4.

We all keep hearing about Casino Drive…but who did he beat. No one. When he runs against Big Brown he really is going to meet the Godzilla of horse racing. He better be EXCEPTIONAL to have even a slight chance of beating Big Brown.

There was one moment in the Preakness that showed just how GREAT Big Brown is…at the top of the lane he was asked to run for maybe a 1/16th of a mile. He immediately opened up six lengths in about six strides. He actually looked like he re-broke. Rarely will you see a horse open up that quick. You saw about three separate runs from him during the race, which is not something you see much from even the best horses.

Dutrow (and God, isn’t he wonderful) knows that the only thing that gets this colt beat is sickness, injury, or a really bad trip. What you will see from Dutrow is just a series of long strong gallops and probably a 5/8ths or 3/4 work about a week before the race. A shorter workout is probably going to happen the day of or the day before the race.

What we are seeing here is potentially one of the greatest horses to ever run. We’ll find out just how great this guy is in about three weeks. Until then, just keep this guy happy and sound Rick. Most of us are rooting for you.

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One Response to “Big Brown arrives in New York City….Belmont next in site”

  1. Big Brown is not going to have any trouble at all at the Belmont, but I hope he does something special to demonstrate his potential for greatness if this is going ot be, as some are saying, his last race.
    TvNB

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