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MLB Selections for 4/25/08

Posted by devildogtodd on April 25, 2008

You will soon see that we love betting overs. Rarely will we bet unders, and there is a good reason for this in all sports, but especially baseball and basketball. In baseball you can have extra innings, which just gives you more of a chance to go over the over. In basketball it is the same thing. Betting overs in baseball can be hugely profitable if you understand a few basic things, and we’ll go over some of these things in future post.

LAA OVER team total of 5 -110. There are a number of stats to support this over. First of all the Angels are a good hitting team that has a team average of .295, has hit 26 home runs, and is averaging 5.04 runs a game. Then factor in that Nate Robertson is the starting pitcher for the Tigers. He has really struggled so far this season. He has an ERA of 7.48, a WhIP of 1.56, and he has lost both decisions this season. On top of that the game is being played in a park that is fairly easy to score runs in. LAA to go over the team total of 5.

LAA -110 over Detroit. We are going with this game basically for the same reasons we are going with the LAA team total over 5. The Angels can really hit, Nate Robertson has really struggled, the Angels are just the better team right now, AND….Santana has been outstanding for the Angels. He is 3-0, has a 2.67 ERA, and a WHIP of .96. With the way the Angels have been playing and with this pitching match up the value is certainly there at -110. Even though we have tooted Santana’s horn and shown the negatives to Robertson we are still recommending an ACTION play on this game. NO listed pitchers needed, although we hope both of these guys go.

Boston -130 over Tampa Bay. The pitching match up goes to Wakefield tonight. The Red Sox have absolutely dominated the Rays over the years, which doesn’t mean it will happen this year but the numbers are so overwhelming in Boston’s favor they are hard to ignore. Garza has an ERA of 9.00, and has a WHIP of 2.12. Even with Boston having the flu bug…they can still hit. Wakefield is 19-7 in his last 26 starts against the Rays and Boston as a team are 10-3 in their last 13. Factor in that Boston has lost its last two and Tampa has won its last three and you have a situation RIPE for a Boston win.

Boston team total over 5. A good hitting team like Boston facing a struggling pitcher like Garza and Boston being the road team points to Boston going over 5. Why the comment on Boston being the road team? We will go over this in later post but it is always better for a team to have NINE chances to score runs instead of eight. And the road team ALWAYS has nine chances, but the home team does not. You would be amazed how many times this makes the difference between winning and losing a bet.

In nine of their last 10 games Boston has either hit five runs or gone over five runs! The one time they didn’t in the last 10 games they scored four runs. So basically you have a team that is scoring a lot of runs facing a pitcher that has really struggled. Almost seems too easy! Hmmm. Never too easy, but we are just putting the odds in our favor.

As we have mentioned in previous post we are just in our infancy with this site. In the not so distant future we will be talking a lot about winning baseball strategies and money management. Did you know you can hit only 25% of your picks and STILL MAKE PLENTY OF MONEY? We’ll show you how.


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